Climate Change & In Security Project

With a focus on the UK and its interests, the Climate Change & (In)Security Project (CCIP) explores the insecurities created by climate change and how to respond to them. CCIP is a collaboration between the University of Oxford and the British Army’s Centre for Historical and Armed Conflict Research (CHACR). Anthropogenic climate change is evident and escalating, transforming natural, economic and socio-political environments. As well as mitigating threats, governments and their militaries are manoeuvring to exploit opportunities and leverage advantage. A range of climate scenarios have been forecast – but common to all is increased frequency and scale of extreme weather events, more droughts and floods, melting of ice caps and permafrost, rise in sea levels, and oceanic acidification and deoxygenation. Both national and human security will almost certainly be affected by threats to agricultural regimes including increased pest and disease presence, spikes in food prices and shocks to food production and food logistics. Consequences will include the recalibration of diplomatic alliances, displacement and dispossession of people, border disputes, endemic famine and armed conflict. The effects of climate change also shape, proliferate, and amplify other threats, interacting in complex ways with pre-existing vulnerabilities, such as resource access and trade competition, socioeconomic inequality, fragile governance, and inter-group tensions. As a result, certain parts of the world are becoming ‘climate conflict hotspots’. CCIP is designed to enhance understanding of these threats, raise awareness of and assess mitigations and adaptations, and communicate insights to parliamentarians, policy-makers, and practitioners.